The COP31 leaders' summit closed in Antalya on Thursday with adaptation and climate finance dominating the agenda and no breakthrough on the money developing countries say they need. Negotiators have ten days left to turn a $300 billion annual finance goal into workable rules, and the Adaptation Fund and Green Climate Fund sign a framework on Friday to coordinate their programmes. The UN's 2026 emissions gap report says the 1.5C target is out of reach and that emissions must fall 18% by 2030 against 2025 levels to stay below 2C.
The World Meteorological Organization told delegates at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, that 2026 extended the run of exceptionally warm years, with record ocean heat, continued ice loss and rising seas. The agency said a very strong El Niño will push heat into 2027, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures possibly 4C above average from November to January. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described a new age of climate extremes. A separate UNEP assessment found current policies heading for about 2.8C of warming and said holding 1.5C now depends on a temporary overshoot followed by removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Delegates are also negotiating carbon market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.
Climate forecasters expect the El Niño that developed in the Pacific this year to become the strongest on record, with NOAA putting 75% odds that the October-to-December index reaches a level unmatched since 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region were about 2C above average by mid-September and are forecast to peak near 3.4C above average. The event is unfolding on an already hot planet: Copernicus recorded the highest average sea surface temperature between 60N and 60S in August. Scientists expect record global heat in 2027 and shifts in rainfall, drought and hurricane patterns. Forecasters expect a wetter winter in California and a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
The UN climate summit opened in Antalya, Türkiye, on Monday with delegations from more than 190 countries and no US negotiating team, after President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement for a second time. The talks run to November 20 under a shared presidency, with Türkiye's Murat Kurum as conference president and Australia's Chris Bowen leading negotiations. Developing countries are pressing richer nations to fund loss and damage, and the meeting opens after another year of record heat and an unusual El Niño pattern. A working outcome on carbon market rules and finance would count as success. Delegates also face a crowded agenda on adaptation and carbon markets.
Taiwan cancelled all 262 domestic and 669 international flights and shut schools and offices as Typhoon Champi passed close to the island. One person was killed and 94 injured, and more than 2,600 people were moved from mountain areas. Champi peaked at 298 km/h earlier in the week before weakening, and its centre is forecast to reach southern Japan on Monday.
October 2026 was the warmest October on record, with a global average surface temperature of 15.35C, or 1.75C above the pre-industrial baseline, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. It was the third month in a row above 1.5C, and sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions hit a record 20.95C as an exceptionally strong El Nino kept strengthening. Copernicus expects the full year to average between 1.56C and 1.61C above pre-industrial levels, with an 80% chance that 2026 ends as the second-warmest year recorded. The bulletin lands two days before COP31 opens in Antalya.
COP31 runs from November 9 to 20 in Antalya, Türkiye, with environment minister Murat Kurum nominated as president and Australia's Chris Bowen leading negotiations. The UN frames the meeting against record temperatures, mounting climate impacts and energy insecurity. Washington has scrapped federal limits on power plant carbon pollution, while this week's US midterms handed Congress to Democrats who promise oversight of those rollbacks.
The El Niño that began in June is the strongest ever measured for its time of year, and forecasters expect it to peak in November or December before fading in early 2027. The World Meteorological Organization puts the chance of it lasting through February at close to 100%. Ocean temperatures hit a record 21.11C between 60 degrees north and south in August. Scientists expect 2026 to be the hottest year on record, with heat, floods and wildfire risk spread across the Pacific basin.
The UN Environment Programme says a temporary breach of the 1.5C warming limit is now imminent and unavoidable after decades of insufficient action, and that the task is to limit the size and duration of the overshoot. Global emissions reached 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, roughly level with 2024. Even the lowest-overshoot pathway peaks at 1.7C to 1.8C mid-century and needs cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, while current pledges deliver only 5% to 8% by 2030. COP31 opens in Antalya on 9 November.
The World Meteorological Organization says its new seasonal outlook projects tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures up to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, far past the 0.5°C threshold that defines El Niño. The agency said the event could be unprecedented in strength and would go beyond the four decades of records used to describe past events, with a peak around December and effects lasting longer. The outlook points to heavier rain in East Africa, the northwest United States and parts of South America and Asia, and drought risk elsewhere. WMO and UN humanitarian officials called for money and supplies to be moved before the damage. COP31 opens in Antalya on November 9.