Talks open without the largest economy
COP31 opened in Antalya, Türkiye, on Monday with delegations from more than 190 countries and one conspicuous empty chair. The United States is not taking part in the negotiations after President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement for a second time.
The conference runs to November 20 at the Antalya Expo Center. Türkiye holds the presidency, with Murat Kurum nominated as president, and Australia's Chris Bowen leads the negotiations under a shared arrangement agreed after COP30 in Belém.
Money is the fight
Developing countries are again pressing richer nations to put more money into the loss and damage fund created at the 2022 summit in Egypt. Payments so far have been slow, and the countries that contributed most to historical emissions are the ones being asked to pay. With the US absent, the pressure falls on the European Union, Japan and, increasingly, China.
Adaptation finance is the second front. Floods, heat and storms cost governments more each year, and many national plans remain unfunded. Negotiators also have to settle rules for carbon markets that were left unfinished at earlier meetings.
Record heat as the backdrop
Delegates meet after another year of record-breaking temperatures and an unusual El Niño pattern that has driven floods and drought across several regions. The UN's climate body has warned that a temporary overshoot of the 1.5C limit is now likely, and argues that overshoot is not a reason to slow down.
Few expect a breakthrough. A working conference that finishes carbon market rules, agrees a finance target and keeps national plans aligned with the Paris timetable would count as success. The absence of the largest economy makes a binding outcome less likely, and gives other governments an argument that they should not move faster than a missing competitor.
The conference also has to agree a new collective finance goal and review national plans submitted under the Paris timetable, a process that has slipped in several large economies.