WMO forecasts 80% chance of El Niño by August
The World Meteorological Organization is forecasting an 80% likelihood that an El Niño climate pattern will develop by August 2026, with a 90% chance it persists through at least November. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are currently 6 degrees Celsius above average, a condition that typically triggers El Niño by disrupting trade winds and trapping warm water in the region.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the coming El Niño will "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." He said impacts will "hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed." Guterres urged world leaders to treat El Niño "as the urgent climate warning it is" and accelerate the shift to clean energy, protect vulnerable populations, and deliver early warning systems for all.
El Niño compounds with climate change to bring extreme weather
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that disrupts global weather patterns. Its effects include severe droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, heavy floods in parts of the United States and East Africa, and higher global average temperatures. When El Niño combines with long-term human-caused warming, the results can be catastrophic. The 2023-24 El Niño helped make 2024 the hottest year on record.
Scientists predict 2027 could be the next record-warm year as the new El Niño pushes global temperatures even higher. Sea surface temperatures have been rising 4.5 times faster since 2019 than at the end of the 1980s, according to recent data. The eastern and central Pacific faces a 70% chance of above-average hurricane activity, while the Atlantic has a 55% chance of below-average activity due to wind shear patterns associated with El Niño.
Call for urgent climate action as window narrows
Guterres called on governments to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and invest in adaptation measures. He emphasized that the most vulnerable communities, which contributed least to climate change, will bear the brunt of El Niño's impacts. The warning comes as multiple climate records continue to fall, with global temperatures already pushing past the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.