UN issues urgent warning on El Niño
The United Nations has warned countries around the world to prepare for the imminent return of El Niño, a weather pattern that could be one of the strongest in decades. The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% likelihood of El Niño conditions fully establishing themselves during the June to August window, with probabilities soaring near or above 90% that it will persist through at least November.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. He warned that impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to 2024 breaking global temperature records.
Global weather impacts expected
El Niño forms when a switch in wind patterns allows warmer waters to spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The WMO has forecast unusually high temperatures in nearly all parts of the planet for the next three months. The expected effects include heavier rain in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. Drier conditions are expected in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia.
The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is likely to see more hurricanes, while the Atlantic basin may see fewer. Sea surface temperatures in reference parts of the Pacific approached El Niño thresholds from late April to mid-May 2026, fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions.
Food security and climate action
Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said the havoc El Niño will wreak as it likely delivers another hottest year will be devastating for many farmers and a question of life or death for far too many people. Food supplies are already under strain from climate breakdown and restricted fertilizer flows due to the Iran war.
Guterres called for climate action equal to the crisis, including ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all. The WMO noted that the expected return of El Niño makes a record-breaking hot year almost certain before the end of the decade, possibly as soon as 2027.