Independents drive the decline
Only 21% of independent voters now approve of President Trump's job performance, while 71% disapprove — a net approval of -50, the worst reading of either Trump term. AP-NORC analysis shows independents without college degrees, who backed Trump at 48% favorability around the 2024 election, have dropped to about 25%. The erosion among this group has erased the education gap that once divided independent voters.
Economy and inflation fuel frustration
Nearly 8 in 10 independents describe the U.S. economy as poor. Only 24% of all Americans approve of Trump's handling of inflation, while 72% disapprove — the worst rating of his second term for any single issue. Gas prices are a flashpoint: 72% of Americans say prices are rising, the 10th consecutive poll showing at least two-thirds reporting increases. Trump began his second term with positive net approval on inflation, but that has reversed sharply.
Midterm warning signs
Hispanic independents, a key demographic that shifted toward Trump in 2024, have also turned sharply negative. Nearly half saw Trump favorably around the election, but approval dropped to 15% during last fall's government shutdown and has only recovered to about 25%. With more Americans identifying as independents than ever, the polling trends signal potential trouble for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, which typically serve as a referendum on the sitting president.