President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%, the lowest level of either of his terms, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday and was published the next day. The survey also found Democrats leading Republicans 47% to 35% when voters were asked how they would vote if congressional elections were held now.
The widest gap of the cycle
The 12-point Democratic advantage is the largest recorded in this election cycle. A Reuters/Ipsos poll two weeks earlier had Democrats ahead by seven points, 44% to 37%. The shift suggests that recent weeks, not the whole year, moved the numbers.
Economic anxiety appears to be the driver. Some 68% of respondents disapproved of how the president is handling the economy. High petrol prices came up repeatedly, and voters were asked whether a list of household purchases was affordable or not.
Women and independents move
Much of the Republican decline came from women. About 50% of female voters said they would back a Democratic candidate, against 32% who chose a Republican. Men also leaned Democratic, by a smaller margin.
Independents moved in the same direction, and Democratic voters reported more enthusiasm about voting than Republicans did. That gap matters in a midterm election where control of Congress is decided district by district and turnout is uneven.
Two weeks to election day
Voters go to the polls on November 3. All 435 House seats are up, along with 33 of the 100 Senate seats. Sitting presidents usually lose ground in midterms, and this president starts from a lower approval base than his recent predecessors at the same point.
Republican strategists argue the party's turnout operation and spending can narrow the gap in individual races, and Trump has said he will have spent about $400 million supporting Republican candidates. Democrats need a net gain of a handful of seats to take the House, and a larger swing to take the Senate. A 12-point national margin, if it holds, would put both chambers within reach.