Roads under water in the capital
Heavy rain flooded roads in parts of Mogadishu on Monday, disrupting transport, business activity and access to schools in the Somali capital. The downpour came at the start of the Deyr rains, the October-to-December season that in bad years brings some of the country's worst flooding.
Aid agencies have been warning for months that this Deyr season could be severe. The Food and Agriculture Organization flagged an elevated risk of riverine and flash flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, made worse by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pattern that pushes more moisture into East Africa. The FAO pointed to 1997 and 2023 as analogues.
Up to 1.8 million people could be displaced
Scenario modelling by the aid group Danish Refugee Council suggests that between 408,000 and 1.8 million people could be displaced in Somalia during October to December 2026. The forecast centre at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society put the probability of El Nino conditions at 100% from July 2026 through March 2027, with 23 of 26 models projecting a very strong event peaking in the last quarter of the year.
Warnings have focused on what can be done before the water arrives. The Joining Forces Alliance, a group of child rights agencies, called on donors, the Somali federal government and humanitarian partners to act before the rains began, including repairing river embankments and pre-positioning supplies in areas that get cut off when roads flood.
A region under strain
Somalia has endured repeated cycles of drought and flood in recent years, and each one erodes the ability of families to recover. Crops and livestock are lost, roads become impassable, and displacement pushes people into crowded settlements with limited water and sanitation. Humanitarian funding, meanwhile, has not kept pace with need.
Aid groups say the next few weeks will show whether the warnings translated into preparation. In a country where most households depend on farming and livestock, the cost of waiting is measured in lives and livelihoods.