The rivalry returns to October
Game 1 of the American League wild card series between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29. Both clubs finished the regular season in the top five in team ERA, which points to a low-scoring, pitching-first series.
Judge's uncertain status
The Yankees' biggest question is captain Aaron Judge. He missed 84 games over the summer with a rib injury, returned in early September, then went back on the injured list with a calf strain after only seven games.
Judge plans to play in the wild card series, but nothing is certain. Manager Aaron Boone had to make the roster decision by the morning of Game 1, and a player coming off a calf strain is a risk in a short series where every game decides the season.
Even below full strength, Judge changes how pitchers work through the lineup. He also arrives with a different reputation than in past Octobers: long criticised for his postseason numbers, he hit .500 across seven playoff games in 2025, including four hits in three games against Boston.
The rest of the bracket
In the National League, the San Diego Padres opened as narrow favourites over the Chicago Cubs, and Atlanta is a slight favourite over Philadelphia. Both series are close enough that home-field advantage may decide them.
Waiting on the other side are the top seeds. The Rays and the Dodgers are positioned to meet the wild card winners, with the Brewers also in the pennant conversation. That structure rewards the wild card survivor with a quick turnaround against a rested rotation.
For the Yankees and Red Sox, the calculation is simple: survive three games with the pitching staff that carried them all year, and hope the captain's calf holds.
The schedule is unforgiving. The wild card round is best-of-three, played at the higher seed, so a single bad inning can end a season that took six months to build.