No bloc clears the threshold
Israel's election ended on Tuesday with no declared winner. Exit polls from the country's main television stations put neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc nor the alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot at the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot's camp appeared slightly ahead in several surveys, a result that reverses months of polling that had shown Netanyahu trailing by a wider margin.
No single party has ever won an outright majority in Israeli history, so coalition arithmetic decides every government. This time the arithmetic is tight enough that small factions, including Arab-led parties, may hold the balance.
Turnout runs high
More than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., the highest figure at that hour in decades and eight percentage points above the 2022 election, according to the Central Elections Committee. Tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad were reported to have flown home to vote. Netanyahu's Likud party asked the election commission to extend voting past 10 p.m.; the commission refused, saying there was no justification. Eisenkot had opposed an extension and told supporters to ignore what he called scare tactics.
The campaign centred on security, military conscription of ultra-Orthodox men and the cost of living, and it played out as a referendum on Netanyahu's nearly unbroken 17 years in power. His opponents point to his corruption trial, the length of the Gaza war and the hostage crisis, and what they describe as pressure on the judiciary. His allies argue that only he can hold the coalition together.
Weeks of bargaining ahead
Official results do not have to be published until November 4. Once they are, President Isaac Herzog has one week to consult party leaders and nominate the member most able to build a coalition. That process can run for weeks, and a second election is possible if no government can be formed.
Exit polls carry real error, and preliminary counts were expected through the night. Both camps signalled they would wait for the official tally before claiming the right to govern.