Independent voters are turning against President Donald Trump in growing numbers, according to new Associated Press polling data. The shift is most pronounced among independents without a college degree, a group that had been a swing constituency in the 2024 election.
Economic anxiety drives the shift
The Iran war's impact on household budgets is a primary driver. Average US gasoline prices rose above $4.50 per gallon during the conflict, and inflation remained stubbornly high. While the recent peace deal has brought some relief, many independents report feeling squeezed by higher costs for food, housing, and energy under Trump's trade policies.
Midterm implications
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress. If independent dissatisfaction persists through November, Democrats could flip control of the House and potentially the Senate. The White House has launched a campaign-style push to sell the Iran peace deal as a foreign policy win, but internal polling reportedly shows the message is not yet resonating with swing voters.
GOP internal divisions
Trump's grip on the Republican Party remains firm, but some GOP strategists privately worry about overreach. The president's continued focus on 2020 election grievances and his combative trade approach are seen as liabilities with the independent voters who decide close elections.