Global exports of refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline were about 25% lower in late July and August than a year earlier, according to Deloitte's weekly global economic update. The firm estimates that about 75% of the decline came from the Middle East or Russia.
That leaves the world short of the fuels that move freight, heat buildings and run farm equipment, and the shortfall is showing up in prices from the pump to the freight yard.
Refineries are out of action
Iranian strikes destroyed some refining capacity in the Middle East during the war, and Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged Russian plants. Products that are still being made often cannot move, because tankers are struggling to pass the Strait of Hormuz while the conflict continues. In Saudi Arabia, a pipeline that was attacked is expected to be offline for weeks, which cuts another route for exports.
Prices and rates feel it first
Crude prices have stayed elevated. West Texas Intermediate traded around $107 a barrel in the latest session, the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.17% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, according to a Bloomberg business flash. President Donald Trump blamed global diesel shortages on Ukraine and said Tehran wants a deal, remarks that landed as his administration weighs its next move in the war.
From the tanker to the loading dock
Diesel is the working fuel of the supply chain. Trucks, trains, ships and delivery fleets run on it, and farms rely on it at harvest. When the flow of refined product thins, freight rates rise first, then warehouse and distribution costs follow. Logistics operators that run distribution centres, pallet handling and sorting lines are already quoting higher fuel surcharges to customers, and industrial buyers are locking in contracts earlier than usual to protect against further spikes.
Analysts say the picture will not change quickly. Refineries take months to repair or rebuild, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz depends on a war that has no clear end point. Some traders are routing cargo around the disruption, which adds days to voyages and pushes costs higher again.