A fast-building event
El Niño is officially here, and it is getting stronger. Forecasters at NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization say conditions in the equatorial Pacific are developing quickly. The WMO says the event is expected to strengthen into a strong El Niño between July and September. NOAA puts the odds of a very strong or super El Niño at 63 percent between November 2026 and January 2027. A super event would be the first since 2015-2016. Forecasters give 100 percent odds that El Niño conditions last through the fall.
What a strong El Niño means
El Niño shifts weather patterns across the globe. Parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia can face drought and heat. Other regions, including parts of the United States and East Africa, often see heavier rain and flooding. The WMO warns of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in the oceans. The strength of this event matters. A super El Niño can push global temperatures higher and set new heat records. The 2023-24 El Niño, one of the five strongest on record, played a role in the record heat of 2024.
Extra uncertainty in a warmer world
Scientists say this El Niño is arriving at a time when the planet is already much hotter than average because of climate change. That combination makes the impacts harder to predict. Even strong El Niños do not follow a fixed playbook, and forecasters expect surprises. Communities from California to the Amazon are watching the forecasts closely. The Amazon, in particular, faces elevated fire risk if the event brings dry conditions. For now, the message from forecasters is simple: prepare for a potentially strong event and the extreme weather that often comes with it.