El Niño arrives with force
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory on June 11, confirming warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center warns conditions are expected to strengthen through fall and winter, with a 63% probability of a very strong event between November 2026 and January 2027.
What this means for global weather
A strong El Niño typically brings increased rainfall and flooding to the southern United States, parts of South America, and East Africa, while causing drought in Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Amazon. The event could suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear but raises the risk of powerful Pacific storms. NOAA has warned this event could rival some of the strongest on record.
Climate context and concerns
The El Niño declaration comes during a year already marked by extreme weather worldwide. Global carbon emissions continue to rise, with China's CO2 output climbing 2% in early 2026. Renewable energy groups have sued the Pentagon over what they call a total halt of wind power projects on military-adjacent lands. Scientists warn that El Niño layered on top of long-term warming could push global temperatures to new records in 2027.