Former Democratic governor Roy Cooper has widened his lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina's open Senate race, according to a new Carolina Journal poll. It is the second straight survey to show the gap growing.
Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has trailed Cooper through the summer. The new numbers show the problem is not only party loyalty but the middle of the electorate.
Independents break for Cooper
The poll found Cooper taking 55% of independent voters to Whatley's 34%. Cooper also holds 91% of Democrats, with just 3% crossing over. Whatley gets 81% of Republicans, but 9% of them back Cooper.
That pattern matters in North Carolina, where unaffiliated voters now outnumber registered Democrats and Republicans. Statewide races are usually decided by a few points, so a 20-point gap among independents is hard for a Republican nominee to close.
Pollster Donald Bryson said there is plenty of campaign left but that Whatley clearly has ground to make up.
A national stage in Dallas
Whatley used the Republican midterm convention in Dallas to make his case, repeatedly tying himself to President Donald Trump and casting Cooper as a reliable vote for national Democratic leaders. He argued the race is now national, not local.
Republicans are defending a Senate seat in a state Trump carried twice. Losing it would narrow the party's path to a majority and force it to spend money in a place leaders had hoped to leave alone.
The national mood
Party strategists say the environment is heavy. Gas prices jumped after disruptions in the Middle East, mortgage rates are climbing, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target. Those numbers shape how voters judge the party in power.
Democrats are working to link Republican candidates to the administration on health care and prices. Republicans counter that Cooper's record as governor is thin on results and that his positions on national issues are out of step with the state.
Early voting begins in October, and the seat will be decided on November 3.