Prices ease but stay near April highs
Brent crude traded around $114 a barrel on Wednesday, down slightly on the day, after touching above $117 twice in the past week. That is the highest level since April and roughly 77 percent above the same date last year, with a gain of nearly 19 percent in a month. US West Texas Intermediate held near $102, and heating oil futures are up about 99 percent year on year.
The retreat followed signals that Washington and Tehran may return to talks. Traders say the market is carrying a war premium of roughly $15 to $20 a barrel, and any hint of negotiation is enough to take a few dollars out of the price.
Shipping through Hormuz is the pressure point
The underlying risk has not gone away. October has been the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a Washington-based research group began tracking maritime security incidents in 2017. Strikes on tankers have pushed insurers to raise war-risk premiums on voyages through the strait, which carried about a fifth of the world's energy supplies before the conflict began in late February.
Shipowners are rerouting cargo, adding days to voyages and lifting freight rates. Port agents in the Gulf report longer waits for berths and more frequent convoy escorts. For importers the cost arrives twice, once in the crude price and again in the freight bill, and warehouses and distribution centres handling diverted volumes are absorbing the delay.
Refiners, diesel and the retail price
Russia is raising diesel production in October after the government granted export quotas following a supply agreement with the United States, two industry sources said. That may ease tightness in Mediterranean and Asian diesel markets, though traders cautioned the volumes are small against the loss of Gulf exports.
In the United States, retail petrol averaged about $3.17 a gallon this week and heating oil sat near $4.78 a gallon ahead of the northern winter. Analysts polled by Trading Economics expect Brent to average close to $120 by the end of the quarter if attacks continue at the October pace. A strike on a Saudi airport this week killed two people and led Washington to withdraw some diplomatic staff, a reminder that the diplomatic track remains fragile.
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