Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said this week that the current El Niño is forecast to reach levels above the warmest observed since reliable records began in 1950, which would make it the strongest event on record.
Records already falling
El Niño is the name for a period of warmer-than-normal water in the central tropical Pacific. In this event, ocean temperature change in the region has already exceeded 2 degrees Celsius within six months, breaking previous records, according to the bureau. Forecast models show the event will keep intensifying and peak in late spring or early summer, which is the normal window for El Niño to reach maximum strength.
Climate change raises the odds
Separate research cited by the bureau suggests climate change has made it far more likely that an El Niño reaches record extremes. Scientists describe the event as “weather on steroids,” and the United Nations has warned that a record El Niño is approaching as it “super-sizes before our eyes.” Warmer oceans add energy to the atmosphere, which can push normal El Niño effects further than they would otherwise go.
What it means for weather
For Australia, El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to the south and east during winter and spring, increasing the risk of heatwaves, drought and bushfires. Globally, strong events have been linked to heavy rain and flooding in parts of the Americas, weaker monsoons in Asia and warmer winters in northern regions. Emergency services in Australia are already preparing for a longer and more intense fire season, and farmers are watching rainfall forecasts closely ahead of the summer growing period.