Air freight rates climbed to their highest level of 2026 this week, according to the TAC index, as retailers rush late holiday orders into limited cargo space. Global spot rates rose for a third straight week, gaining 4% in week 44 to about $3.93 per kilogram, roughly 40% above the same week last year. Measured against 2025, rates are up 28.2%, well past the previous two peak season highs.
Rates climb for a third week
The increases are broad. Outbound Hong Kong rates rose 4.6% week on week and 29.2% against last year. Shanghai was up 5.7% on the week and 21.1% on the year. Seoul and Vietnam also moved higher. In Europe, Frankfurt outbound rates jumped 9.9%, led by traffic to the US and China, and London rose 5.6% after a dip the week before. Traders reported backlogs in Bangkok disrupting both imports and exports.
Fuel is not the driver
Usually fuel explains a large part of an air cargo move. Not this time. IATA's jet fuel monitor shows average prices down 6.5% in the week to November 6 and 7% lower than a month earlier. The rate gains are coming from capacity, not cost: freighter space is committed weeks ahead, and passenger belly capacity on some lanes is still below pre-crisis levels because long-haul schedules have not fully recovered.
What shippers face before Christmas
The calendar is tight. Thanksgiving falls on November 26 and Black Friday on November 27, leaving a narrow window for restocking. Freight forwarders report China-to-US West Coast air rates around $8.50 to $9.00 per kilogram and China-to-JFK near $9.50 to $10.00, subject to space being available at all.
Ocean freight tells the opposite story. Drewry's World Container Index shows Shanghai to Los Angeles unchanged at $7,539 per 40-foot container, Shanghai to New York down 3% to $9,303 and Shanghai to Rotterdam down 2% to $3,615, as peak season demand fades. Carriers are still pushing general rate increases for mid-November ahead of next year's contract talks. A return of container services to the Red Sea and Suez Canal would shorten transit times and could soften air demand later, but not before this peak ends. For now, the premium is being paid for speed.
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